HVAC
HVAC Customer Lifetime Value Calculator
Estimate what a customer relationship returns across maintenance, repairs and the eventual system replacement.
Result
Every input here is an estimate and the output inherits all of that uncertainty. Treat it as a way of comparing decisions, not as a forecast. The replacement figure is the one that moves it most and the one hardest to know, because whether a customer replaces with you depends mostly on whether they still remember you when the system fails. That is what maintenance plans and follow-up actually buy.
Open the HVAC CRM demoWhat moves the number
- Years retained, which is the multiplier on everything.
- Service frequency, which rises with agreement membership.
- Whether you are still the customer's contractor when the system needs replacing.
Where this one goes wrong
Assuming every customer follows the average. A customer on a maintenance plan and one who called once in five years have very different values, and averaging them obscures which acquisition channels produce which.
Questions
About this calculator
How long do HVAC customers stay?
It varies widely with service quality and with whether they are on a plan. Measure your own retention rather than assuming, because the figure drives every acquisition decision.
Why is the replacement so significant?
Because it is usually the largest transaction in the relationship by a wide margin. Being the contractor the customer calls at that point is worth more than any individual service visit.
Should value be tracked by acquisition channel?
Yes. Channels differ enormously in the customers they produce, and a channel with a high close rate but poor retention can be worse value than a slower one.
Put this calculator on your site
Free to embed. Paste this where you want it to appear. It stays up to date automatically because it loads from BDEVY.
Please keep the attribution line. It is the only thing we ask in return.
How to use this calculator
- Average service job value ($). Enter your own figure; the page starts at $385.
- Service jobs per year. Enter your own figure; the page starts at 1.4.
- Expected years as a customer. Enter your own figure; the page starts at 9.
- Annual maintenance plan revenue ($). Enter your own figure; the page starts at $189.
- Share of customers on a plan (%). Enter your own figure; the page starts at 45%.
- Average replacement job value ($). Enter your own figure; the page starts at $8,400.
The result updates as you type, so you can try a figure, see what it does to lifetime revenue, and change it back. Nothing you enter is sent anywhere or saved.
A worked example
These are the figures the calculator opens with. Every number in the results column below is produced by the same calculation the page runs, so you can follow it through before putting your own figures in.
What goes in
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Average service job value | $385 |
| Service jobs per year | 1.4 |
| Expected years as a customer | 9 |
| Annual maintenance plan revenue | $189 |
| Share of customers on a plan | 45% |
| Average replacement job value | $8,400 |
| Chance they replace with you | 35% |
| Gross margin | 42% |
| Cost to acquire a customer | $310 |
What comes out
| Result | Value |
|---|---|
| Lifetime revenue main result | $8,556 |
| Lifetime gross profit | $3,594 |
| Return on acquisition cost | 11.6× |
| Average revenue per year | $950.72 |
Across 9 years this customer is worth roughly $8,556, $4,851 in service calls, $765.45 in maintenance plan revenue and $2,940 from the 35% chance they replace with you. At a 42% margin that is $3,594 of gross profit, or 11.6× the acquisition cost of winning them. Note that the single replacement accounts for 34.36% of the whole relationship.
How sensitive the answer is
Holding everything else steady and changing only average service job value, this is what happens to lifetime revenue. It is worth knowing which of your inputs the answer actually hinges on, and which barely move it.
| Average service job value ($) | Lifetime revenue |
|---|---|
| $193 | $6,137 |
| $289 | $7,347 |
| $385 example above | $8,556 |
| $578 | $10,988 |
| $770 | $13,407 |
Every other input is held at the example value while this one changes, which is not how a real job behaves. Treat it as a guide to which number matters most, not as five separate quotes.
What each figure means
- Average service job value ($)
- A money amount, starting at $385.
- Service jobs per year
- A number, between 0 and 30, starting at 1.4.
- Expected years as a customer
- A number, between 0 and 60, starting at 9.
- Annual maintenance plan revenue ($)
- A money amount, starting at $189.
- Share of customers on a plan (%)
- A percentage, between 0 and 100, starting at 45%.
- Average replacement job value ($)
- A money amount, starting at $8,400.
- Chance they replace with you (%)
- A percentage, between 0 and 100, starting at 35%.
- Gross margin (%)
- A percentage, between 0 and 95, starting at 42%.
- Cost to acquire a customer ($)
- A money amount, starting at $310.
What the results tell you
| Result | What it is |
|---|---|
| Lifetime revenue | The headline result. A money figure. |
| Lifetime gross profit | A money figure. |
| Return on acquisition cost | A number. |
| Average revenue per year | A money figure. |
Before you rely on this number
Sizing, capacity and load figures here are planning estimates. A real installation depends on the manufacturer's data for the specific equipment, the duct system it is going into, and a proper load calculation for the building. Use this to sanity-check a number or price a job, not to select equipment.
Keep going
Related calculators
HVAC Replacement Opportunity Calculator
Weigh a system's age, repair history and efficiency against replacement cost, so a repair-or-replace conversation starts from evidence.
Open calculatorHVAC Maintenance Plan Profit Calculator
See what a maintenance plan returns once the visits, the travel, the admin and the member discount are all costed.
Open calculatorHVAC Customer Lifetime Value Calculator
Work out what a customer is worth across the whole relationship, not just the first job.
Open calculatorSee a real customer record
The CRM demo shows lifetime revenue, every property, every system and the next opportunity on one screen. The view this calculator is estimating.