Tree service
Tree Service Lead Value Calculator
Works what a lead is worth, which sets what you can afford to pay for one.
Result
This is gross profit, not revenue, and it counts the whole relationship rather than the first job. It assumes the repeat work is real for your business, which is worth checking against your own records before spending against it.
Get a Free Business AuditHow the calculation works
Close rate times the gross profit on the first job gives the value of a lead, with repeat work over the relationship added where it applies. The share of that value you are willing to spend sets the maximum bid per lead. The calculation matters most when buying leads, because it converts a lead seller's price into a judgement about whether it is worth paying.
What moves the number
- Close rate, which is what converts a lead into revenue.
- Gross profit on the typical first job, which varies widely by work type.
- Whether leads are exclusive or shared with competitors.
- Estimating cost per lead, since unconverted leads still consume time.
Where this one goes wrong
Shared leads close far worse than exclusive ones, because several contractors call the same homeowner within minutes and the job frequently goes to whoever answered first rather than whoever was best. Applying an exclusive close rate to shared leads overstates their value substantially. The other adjustment is estimating cost: every lead that does not convert still consumed a phone call and often a site visit, so the true cost per job won includes the unconverted ones, which is why close rate affects lead economics twice over.
Before you quote
- Apply a lower close rate to shared leads than to exclusive ones.
- Include estimating time on unconverted leads in the cost.
- Compare the seller's price against your own break-even per lead.
Questions
About this calculator
What is a tree care lead worth?
Your close rate times the gross profit on a typical job, which sets the most you can pay for one. Because job values vary so much in this trade, the figure differs a lot between a business doing large removals and one doing pruning, so a general price means little.
Are shared leads worth buying?
At a lower price than exclusive ones, because they close far worse. Several contractors call the same homeowner within minutes and the work often goes to whoever answered first. Applying an exclusive close rate to shared leads overstates their value considerably.
Do unconverted leads cost anything?
Yes, and it is frequently overlooked. Every lead that does not convert still consumed a call and often a site visit, so the real cost per job won includes all the ones that did not. That is why improving close rate improves lead economics twice over.
The formula
lead value = close rate x first job profit x (1 + repeat jobs)
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How to use this calculator
- Share of leads you win (%). Enter your own figure; the page starts at 32%.
- Average first job ($). Enter your own figure; the page starts at $1,250.
- Gross margin (%). Enter your own figure; the page starts at 46%.
- Extra jobs over the relationship. Enter your own figure; the page starts at 2.4.
- Share of value you will spend (%). Spending the whole value leaves nothing for the business.
The result updates as you type, so you can try a figure, see what it does to value of one lead, and change it back. Nothing you enter is sent anywhere or saved.
A worked example
These are the figures the calculator opens with. Every number in the results column below is produced by the same calculation the page runs, so you can follow it through before putting your own figures in.
What goes in
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Share of leads you win | 32% |
| Average first job | $1,250 |
| Gross margin | 46% |
| Extra jobs over the relationship | 2.4 |
| Share of value you will spend | 25% |
What comes out
| Result | Value |
|---|---|
| Value of one lead main result | $625.60 |
| From the first job alone | $184 |
| Value of one customer | $1,955 |
| Most to pay per lead | $156.40 |
One lead is worth $625.60 in gross profit once the close rate and repeat work are counted. Paying more than $156.40 for one leaves too little behind to be worth doing.
How sensitive the answer is
Holding everything else steady and changing only average first job, this is what happens to value of one lead. It is worth knowing which of your inputs the answer actually hinges on, and which barely move it.
| Average first job ($) | Value of one lead |
|---|---|
| $625 | $312.80 |
| $938 | $469.45 |
| $1,250 example above | $625.60 |
| $1,875 | $938.40 |
| $2,500 | $1,251 |
Every other input is held at the example value while this one changes, which is not how a real job behaves. Treat it as a guide to which number matters most, not as five separate quotes.
What each figure means
- Share of leads you win (%)
- A percentage, between 0 and 100, starting at 32%.
- Average first job ($)
- A money amount, starting at $1,250.
- Gross margin (%)
- A percentage, between 0 and 95, starting at 46%.
- Extra jobs over the relationship
- A number, between 0 and 50, starting at 2.4.
- Share of value you will spend (%)
- Spending the whole value leaves nothing for the business.
What the results tell you
| Result | What it is |
|---|---|
| Value of one lead | The headline result. A money figure. |
| From the first job alone | A money figure. |
| Value of one customer | A money figure. |
| Most to pay per lead | A money figure. |
Estimating is the easy part
The jobs you never hear about cost more than the ones you mis-measure. BDEVY builds the marketing, systems and automation that bring them in.