Tree service
Tree Service Customer Lifetime Value Calculator
Works what a customer is worth over time, which in tree care is mostly about trees they still have.
Result
Gross profit, not revenue, because revenue you spend delivering the work is not available to spend winning customers. Referrals are the least reliable input here; measure yours rather than assuming.
Get a Free Business AuditHow the calculation works
Average job value times jobs per customer per year times years retained, with margin applied, plus referred customers. The tree care reading differs from a frequent-service trade: a customer may use you once for a removal and never again, or they may have a mature garden needing pruning every few years for a decade. The difference is the property rather than the customer, which is why what they still have matters more than how satisfied they were.
What moves the number
- Number and size of remaining trees on the property.
- Years retained, which for a long-standing property can be long.
- Average job value, which varies hugely by work type.
- Referrals, which in this trade travel well along a street.
Where this one goes wrong
Judge lifetime value on the property rather than the person, because a customer with one tree who has just had it removed has no further value regardless of how pleased they were, while a customer with a dozen mature trees is a relationship worth years of work. That should change how follow-up is prioritised. Referrals are also unusually strong in this trade and travel geographically: tree work is visible, neighbours see the crew and the result, and a street with mature trees produces clusters of work from one good job, which is both a lifetime value point and a routing one.
Before you quote
- Assess value on remaining trees, not on satisfaction alone.
- Record what else is on the property for future follow-up.
- Treat neighbouring properties as the natural referral path.
Questions
About this calculator
How do I know which customers are worth following up?
By what they still have. A customer whose only tree has been removed has no further work regardless of how pleased they were, while one with a dozen mature trees is years of pruning and maintenance. Recording the property rather than just the job is what makes follow-up worthwhile.
Why do referrals matter so much in tree work?
Because the work is visible. Neighbours see the crew, the equipment and the result, and a street with mature trees produces clusters of enquiries from one good job. That makes referrals both a value driver and a routing advantage, since the next job is next door.
Is tree care a repeat business?
It can be, over years rather than months. Trees need pruning on a cycle of several years rather than seasonally, so a property with mature trees generates recurring work on a long interval. Treating it as purely transactional misses that, and a simple record of what is on each property captures it.
The formula
lifetime value = average job x jobs per year x years x gross margin
Put this calculator on your site
Free to embed. Paste this where you want it to appear. It stays up to date automatically because it loads from BDEVY.
Please keep the attribution line. It is the only thing we ask in return.
How to use this calculator
- Average job value ($). Enter your own figure; the page starts at $1,250.
- Jobs per customer per year. Enter your own figure; the page starts at 1.4.
- Years they stay. Enter your own figure; the page starts at 6.
- Gross margin (%). Enter your own figure; the page starts at 46%.
- Customers they refer. Enter your own figure; the page starts at 0.4.
The result updates as you type, so you can try a figure, see what it does to lifetime gross profit, and change it back. Nothing you enter is sent anywhere or saved.
A worked example
These are the figures the calculator opens with. Every number in the results column below is produced by the same calculation the page runs, so you can follow it through before putting your own figures in.
What goes in
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Average job value | $1,250 |
| Jobs per customer per year | 1.4 |
| Years they stay | 6 |
| Gross margin | 46% |
| Customers they refer | 0.4 |
What comes out
| Result | Value |
|---|---|
| Lifetime gross profit main result | $4,830 |
| Lifetime revenue | $10,500 |
| Including referred customers | $6,762 |
| Gross profit per year | $805 |
One customer is worth $4,830 of gross profit over 6 years, or $6,762 once the people they refer are counted. That is what you can afford to spend winning one.
How sensitive the answer is
Holding everything else steady and changing only average job value, this is what happens to lifetime gross profit. It is worth knowing which of your inputs the answer actually hinges on, and which barely move it.
| Average job value ($) | Lifetime gross profit |
|---|---|
| $625 | $2,415 |
| $938 | $3,624 |
| $1,250 example above | $4,830 |
| $1,875 | $7,245 |
| $2,500 | $9,660 |
Every other input is held at the example value while this one changes, which is not how a real job behaves. Treat it as a guide to which number matters most, not as five separate quotes.
What each figure means
- Average job value ($)
- A money amount, starting at $1,250.
- Jobs per customer per year
- A number, between 0 and 60, starting at 1.4.
- Years they stay
- A number, between 0 and 60, starting at 6.
- Gross margin (%)
- A percentage, between 0 and 95, starting at 46%.
- Customers they refer
- A number, between 0 and 20, starting at 0.4.
What the results tell you
| Result | What it is |
|---|---|
| Lifetime gross profit | The headline result. A money figure. |
| Lifetime revenue | A money figure. |
| Including referred customers | A money figure. |
| Gross profit per year | A money figure. |
Estimating is the easy part
The jobs you never hear about cost more than the ones you mis-measure. BDEVY builds the marketing, systems and automation that bring them in.