HVAC
HVAC Lead Value Calculator
Work out what one lead is worth in gross profit, and the maximum you can pay for one.
Result
This is gross profit, not revenue, and it counts the whole relationship rather than the first job. It assumes the repeat work is real for your business, which is worth checking against your own records before spending against it.
Get a Free Business AuditWhat moves the number
- Close rate, since a lead is only worth its probability of becoming work.
- Average job gross profit rather than average revenue.
- Repeat and referral value, which is where most of the return sits.
Where this one goes wrong
Valuing a lead on first-job revenue. The first job frequently only covers acquisition; the value is in the maintenance agreement, the repeat calls and the eventual replacement.
Questions
About this calculator
What is the maximum I should pay for a lead?
Less than the gross profit it produces on average, with room for the business to make money. Paying up to the gross profit means the lead source takes all of it.
Should lifetime value be included?
It should be considered, carefully. Including full lifetime value justifies paying a great deal for a lead, which only works if your retention actually delivers it.
Do lead sources differ in quality?
Substantially, and averaging them hides it. Tracking close rate and job value by source is what tells you which to spend more on.
The formula
lead value = close rate x first job profit x (1 + repeat jobs)
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How to use this calculator
- Share of leads you win (%). Enter your own figure; the page starts at 32%.
- Average first job ($). Enter your own figure; the page starts at $620.
- Gross margin (%). Enter your own figure; the page starts at 48%.
- Extra jobs over the relationship. Enter your own figure; the page starts at 2.4.
- Share of value you will spend (%). Spending the whole value leaves nothing for the business.
The result updates as you type, so you can try a figure, see what it does to value of one lead, and change it back. Nothing you enter is sent anywhere or saved.
A worked example
These are the figures the calculator opens with. Every number in the results column below is produced by the same calculation the page runs, so you can follow it through before putting your own figures in.
What goes in
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Share of leads you win | 32% |
| Average first job | $620 |
| Gross margin | 48% |
| Extra jobs over the relationship | 2.4 |
| Share of value you will spend | 25% |
What comes out
| Result | Value |
|---|---|
| Value of one lead main result | $323.79 |
| From the first job alone | $95.23 |
| Value of one customer | $1,012 |
| Most to pay per lead | $80.95 |
One lead is worth $323.79 in gross profit once the close rate and repeat work are counted. Paying more than $80.95 for one leaves too little behind to be worth doing.
How sensitive the answer is
Holding everything else steady and changing only average first job, this is what happens to value of one lead. It is worth knowing which of your inputs the answer actually hinges on, and which barely move it.
| Average first job ($) | Value of one lead |
|---|---|
| $310 | $161.89 |
| $465 | $242.84 |
| $620 example above | $323.79 |
| $930 | $485.68 |
| $1,240 | $647.58 |
Every other input is held at the example value while this one changes, which is not how a real job behaves. Treat it as a guide to which number matters most, not as five separate quotes.
What each figure means
- Share of leads you win (%)
- A percentage, between 0 and 100, starting at 32%.
- Average first job ($)
- A money amount, starting at $620.
- Gross margin (%)
- A percentage, between 0 and 95, starting at 48%.
- Extra jobs over the relationship
- A number, between 0 and 50, starting at 2.4.
- Share of value you will spend (%)
- Spending the whole value leaves nothing for the business.
What the results tell you
| Result | What it is |
|---|---|
| Value of one lead | The headline result. A money figure. |
| From the first job alone | A money figure. |
| Value of one customer | A money figure. |
| Most to pay per lead | A money figure. |
Before you rely on this number
Sizing, capacity and load figures here are planning estimates. A real installation depends on the manufacturer's data for the specific equipment, the duct system it is going into, and a proper load calculation for the building. Use this to sanity-check a number or price a job, not to select equipment.
Estimating is the easy part
The jobs you never hear about cost more than the ones you mis-measure. BDEVY builds the marketing, systems and automation that bring them in.