Real estate & rental
Rental Lease Renewal Calculator
Whether to push a renewal increase or protect the tenancy, with the turnover cost on the other side.
Result
Tenancy rules are set by state and often by city, and they are among the most locally variable areas of law there is. Deposit limits, notice periods, late fee caps, interest on deposits and rent increase restrictions all differ and change. This is arithmetic, not legal advice; check your own jurisdiction before relying on any of it. The probability of them leaving is a judgement, not a measurement, and it rises sharply once the increase exceeds what comparable properties are asking. A good tenant paying slightly under market is frequently worth more than the gap.
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About this calculator
Should I always raise to market?
Not automatically. A reliable tenant who pays on time and looks after the place has a value that does not appear in the rent roll, and the gap has to exceed the cost and risk of replacing them.
How do I reduce the risk?
Give plenty of notice, explain the increase against market comparables, and keep it modest and regular. Surprise increases cause far more moves than gradual ones.
The formula
expected value = gain x probability they stay - turnover cost x probability they leave
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